In this article, regional conflicts are defined that the military conflicts which happened after the end of the Cold War. First of all, "basis of conflict" is needed to the outbreak of regional conflicts. The basis of conflict is composed of historical ethnic opposition, cultural opposition, religious opposition, economical opposition and so on. Fearon said that the diversities of ethnics are relevant to the cause of conflicts, and GDP per capita, which shows the strength of the country, can predict the risk of conflicts. If GDP per capita is few, the capacity of governance is little, so the government can not watch and punish the rebellion. [Fearon and Laitin, 2003] Paul Collier, who was the economist of World Bank, analyzed the probability of outbreak of civil wars. By his research, this probability is more relevant to the opportunity of the accessibility to the natural resources, geopolitical merit to the rebellion and so on than the grievance. [Collier, 2004] Collier's research shows that "basis of conflict" is important to cause of conflict. Furthermore, one or each group should "agitate" their own group is also important. Tsukimura said that if the causes of the conflict exist, and more, when political leadership is added, conflict happens. [Tsukimura, 2009] For Tsukimura's argument, not only the "basis of conflict", but also the "agitation" is needed to conflict. But, at the Rwanda genocide in 1994, a million people were killed in less than 100 days. [Gourevitch, 1999] Can we kill so numerous people only for the sake of abstract hatred or grievance, and the agitate radio program? One more factor should be added, a "systematic slaughter" by radical group may be the last trigger to the outbreak of conflict. If our family or friends were killed by such radical group brutally, we, victims, are willing to revenge the assailants. From then, the chain of slaughter starts. Especially, this slaughter is treated to the genocide, the damage of the conflict will be maximized. In this way, over the cultural, historical or economical "basis of conflict", political leaders "agitate" their members to defeat or kill their opposed groups, and an actually "systematic slaughter" was carried out, the conflict become to outbreak. Now, I will verify this hypothesis by three cases, Kosovo, Rwanda and Afghanistan.
First case is Rwanda. [Takeuchi, 2004] The Rwanda genocide in 1994 was so shocked because of its numerous damages and the conflict by two ethnic groups, Hutu and Tutsi. Most estimates indicate a death toll between 800,000 and 1,000,000, which could be as high as 10% of the total population. Most of the victims are Tutsi, and they killed for they are Tutsi. This genocide didn't happen suddenly, and we might prevent this. Tutsi and Hutu are the two major ethnic groups of Rwanda. Tutsi occupies over 10% and Hutu does about 80% of total population. There are, though, not so significant difference between these two groups in language and religion, and also they live in same living space. Of course, marriages beyond groups are not rare. There are many unknown things in origins of the Kingdom of Rwanda, but we now know that to recognize Hutu was aborigine and after that Tutsi came and conquest Hutu is not scientifically reliable. In 19 century, Tutsi was sure to monopolize the land's rights and collect taxes from Hutu's farmer in the center of the Kingdom, but in the periphery, the difference between Tutsi and Hutu was vague. The relation of these two groups radically changed in colonial rule. Belgium divided Tutsi and Hutu, and govern separately. Tutsi was the ruler, Hutu was the ruled. This divided govern consisted the basis of conflict. After the colonial rule, Party of the Hutu Emancipation Movement (PARMEHUTU) came into power, and Rwanda National Union Party (UNAR), which pursued to keep the monarchy, went out. PARMEHUTU represented only a well-educated Hutu, and Habyarimana came into power by coup d'état in 1974. The Habyarimana filled his Administration with members of his own family and close relatives. Rwandese Patriotic Front (RPF) opposed to Habyarimana Administration and demanded the revolution of central governance. Against this demand, Habyarimana show this opposition with RPF as an ethnic opposition between Tutsi and Hutu to Rwanda people. Habyarimana agitated that RPF was Tutsi and Tutsi aimed the revival of the old rule. In 1994, Habyarimana was killed. The radical group of Hutu recognizes this was an act by RPF, they directed Hutu people to kill the sympathizer of RPF. As a result, terrible genocide happened. As such in Rwanda, the loot opposition of Hutu and Tutsi was the basis of conflict, Habyarimana agitated Hutu, then, his assassination was the last trigger of the outbreak of conflict.
Next case is Kosovo. [Siba, 1996] Yugoslavia kept managed to charismatic govern by Tito, and he took socialism of self-management after WWⅡ. The fall of Yugoslavia started from the amendment of constitution in 1974. In the Autonomous Region of Kosovo, Albanians are the majority, and after 1974, they got own Constitution, Police, Judge, and the right of tax collection. This movement of independent was accelerated after the death of Tito in 1980. Kosovo most delayed in economic development in former Yugoslavia, and in 1981, Albanians started a riot. This didn't become outbreak. Other ethnic groups also accelerated the movement of independent, many Serbians who lived in Autonomous Regions moved to the Republic of Serbia. Slobodan Milosevic was the person who took advantage of the grievance of these Serbian emigrants. He agitated the Serbian emigrants and become the President of Republic of Serbia. Milosevic amended the 1974 Constitution, came off the autonomy of the Autonomous Region of Kosovo, declared Serbian direct rule, and kicked off the Albanians from Government and Schools. After 1991, the Albanians organized the Democratic Alliance of Kosovo, whose leader was Ibrahim Rugova, demanded the autonomy, but Rugova's approach was non-violence and he wanted to negotiate to Serbian authorities. The radical Arbanians refugees reacted against Rugova. They organized Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA), and it rose as military guerilla. Then, in 1998, KLA clashed with Serbian security police, Kosovo conflict became outbreak. So, in Kosovo, the grievance of Albanians ironically proceeded the Greater Serbia policy. Milosevic agitated Serbians and the Serbian security police's systematic slaughter against Albanians was the cause of outbreak of Kosovo conflict.
Third case is Afghanistan. [Watanabe, 2003] Afghanistan had the culture of tribe, and long opposed between central government and rural tribes. In this chapter, I took the confrontation between Taliban and U.S. after 2001. Taliban brought Kabol under control in 1996. Taliban believes in Islamic Fundamentalism. Taliban aimed the central power in Afghanistan, and it was Osama bin Laden who supported Taliban by overwhelming funds and global intelligence network. Osama bin Laden is a fanatic terrorist of Islamic Fundamentalism, and he agitated the global terrorists who also believe in Islamic Fundamentalism. 9/11 was the critical systematic slaughter to U.S. It was not the first terrorism against U.S. by Osama bin Laden, but the impact was too huge and decisive. U.S. was strongly shocked by 9/11, and U.S. decided to stamp out Al-Qaeda and Taliban. In Afghanistan conflict from 2001, basis of conflict is Islamic Fundamentalism, Osama bin Laden was the agitator, and 9/11 was the systematic slaughter.
By these verifications about Rwanda, Kosovo, and Afghanistan, my idea of the origin of regional conflicts, especially for the outbreak of war, is that the combination of these three factors, namely, basis of conflict, agitation, and systematic slaughter.
References
Brown, Michael E., ed. [1996], The International Dimensions of Internal Conflict, Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press
Collier, Paul. and Anke Hoeffler. [2004], "Greed and Grievance in Civil War", Oxford Economic Papers 56: 563-95
Fearon, James D., and David D. Laitin, [2003], "Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War", American Political Science Review 97: 75-90
Gourevitch, Philip. [1999], We Wish to Inform You That Tomorrow We Will Be Killed With Our Families: Stories from Rwanda. Picador USA
Ishida, Atsushi. [2002], "Internal Conflicts and International Intervention",Hiroshi Kimura edt. International Crisis, Sekai-Sisou Sha
Takeuchi, Shinichi. [2004], "Two conflicts in Rwanda", Journal of Social Science, Vol.55: 5-6, p.p.101-129
Tsukimura, Taro. [2009], "Structure Movement and Outbreak of Ethnic Conflicts", Japanese Studies of International Politics, Vol.2: International Politics beyond Borders, 115-135
Siba, Nobuhiro. [1996]. Contemporary history of Yugoslavia, Iwanami Shoten, 1996
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