Many Japanese think that Kim Jong-il is almost dying and his regime in North Korea is at the last moment. However, it is not our chance. I guess Kim Jong-il is not so foolish and has been felt slighted. So, he seems to pursue two aims. The one is military supremacy, and the second is the higher start point of access to free trades and financial market. At first, the dominant dictator tends to be under the fear of coup d'tat. For Kim Jong-il, most fear is cannot command the forces. So, security is most important matter for Kim Jong-il. In addition, to start relatively better condition on trades and financial market, NK's attitude is very heavy-handed.
 For Japan, of course security is important, and also to prevent from NK as foreign matter with China. If China takes too important role in solving NK problems, Japan and US can't take part in appropriately.

 Of course pressure is important, but also aid is more important. And, to prevent China's too major role, six party talks is best way to solve this problem. Most important thing is that US's painful negotiation with North Korea, and Japan should work on US to keep negotiate with North Korea.

 Japan's most important role is "Liaison" for all interest parties. If Japan can continue this role, the situation with North Korea would better than now. For US, to keep painful negotiation with North Korea is apparently difficult, but it is only way to reluctant North Korea government and to persuade North Korea's tough forces.
 In Japan, the public opinion and the politicians are most difficult matter. They prefer simple and straight resolution with North Korea, but the situation is not so simple, too complicated. So, to keep painful negotiation is the best attitude with North Korea.






このページは、okneigeが2009年12月 6日 08:57に書いたブログ記事です。


次のブログ記事は「Groupthink in US foreign policy」です。